Nobody will say it, at least publicly, so I will. Katie Couric will not be the savior of daytime television. She will not be “the next Oprah”. Her talk show will be cancelled after its first season. This is not a guess or a prediction. It’s simple fact – proven over and over again. Katie, like a parade of former news people turned talk show hosts before her, including Jane Pauley, is, in my opinion, missing one simple TV ingredient that will prevent her from conquering daytime – warmth. Viewers, as I see it, just don’t connect with Katie. (Joan Lunden‘s talk show also failed, but not for a lack of warmth, but for a lack of highlighting warm moments by the producers). It’s an intangible you either have on the air – or you don’t. I’m not saying Katie or the others are not “warm” human beings. I’m saying any warmth they exude does not survive the digital conversion process that beams the TV signal into our homes and is decoded onto our flat screens – in my opinion. Look at the promotional photos for the show- did you see warmth there? Even with the warm glow behind her and the soft colors, there’s no warmth coming from her. I’ve learned through years of producing talent that you can manufacture “on-air presence” through all kinds of tricks here and there, but you cannot manufacture “warmth”. You just can’t. Why Robin Roberts emanates warmth and Katie Couric, in my opinion, does not is something I can’t explain. It’s certainly something I, as a right brain producer, am very good at identifying with on-air talent – who’s warm & who’s not – but it’s something I can’t explain.

You may say, “Well, how do you explain her success on the Today show?” Her success there was two-fold… she had Matt Lauer sitting next to her, and Today was the “best” of the three truly lousy network morning news shows. Today went on just fine without her after she left for CBS. And last week’s stunt by GMA proves, at least to me, that Ms. Couric is not the superstar news and TV talent she’s made out to be. When GMA had her fill in for Robin Roberts who was vacationing, they assumed they’d attract millions of eyeballs who used to watch Katie away from Today. Didn’t happen, even though NBC countered by having Sarah Palin, ah, sort of host, Today along with having a “very important” announcement by Ryan Seacrest. I don’t think either Palin or Seacrest get any credit for Today holding on to its viewers last week. NBC viewers just didn’t find Palin annoying enough to switch. And if they did switch, I suspect they switched to a local morning show rather than the ABC or CBS morning shows.

Please understand I have absolutely nothing against Katie Couric. I’ve never met the woman. I don’t know any relevant “inside info” that would sway my opinion of her one way or another. I did compete against her. My show, the original KTLA Morning News, did kick her show’s ass in the early 1990’s because my female host, Barbara Beck, was hug-your-puppy warmth machine. But if I was going through a hundred or so demo reels and Katie’s was one of them, I’d pass… like I have on so many others. Katie’s just not warm on air in my opinion. And all of Disney’s money and promotion and high power executives in corners offices can’t manufacture that for her. Walt recognized warmth. Hayley Mills was so warm he put two of her on screen at the same time to capitalize on it. He even managed to make his cartoon characters bubble over with warmth. Name one of the seven dwarfs who wasn’t endearing (warm). The glaring exception in his catalog of characters was Alice (in Wonderland). No warmth – so no one cared what happened to her through the course of the film. No warmth = Box-office flop.

During the last 5 years, nobody seemed interested in what Katie had to say on the CBS Evening News or on 60 Minutes. Why are viewers expected to flock to her in droves in daytime to hear her point of view now? I find it sad that the networks all tried to “woo” Katie to bring her talk show to them during secret meetings in February of 2011 at the St. Regis Hotel in Manhattan. Wait – the networks wooed her? She just caused CBS to lose tens of millions of dollars when they plopped her in their anchor chair. Shouldn’t she be doing the wooing?

Katie will probably never be more successful than she was, what, ten years ago, on Today. There were enough elements in play to sustain her even though I suspect viewers didn’t necessarily connect with her. Those elements are long gone. Katie’s on her own in daytime. I suspect no one at ABC actually sat down and watched some video of Katie before presenting their winning woo. I suspect no one viewed her subjectively, without all the hype and agents’ adjectives and millions of dollars swirling around in their heads.  Did they audition her? Certainly not! However, I suspect if they were to audition her – and put her on a set with a bunch of puppies, they’d see more clearly that the warmth just isn’t there. (Hmmm, auditioning talent with puppies. I’m going to try that.) And that’s why millions upon millions of dollars are thrown away year after year on potential daytime hosts who fail to deliver. Because left-brain network executives can’t discern warmth from wit – and most likely don’t even watch the talent on-air before shelling out obscene amounts of money.

Viewers, on the other hand, do.